How far will Bitcoin go?
Bitcoin continues to dance around the key $30,000 level…watching support levels if it drops…reasons for optimism despite the downside pressure…a “Cash Calendar” event today
Let’s get rid of the bad news first.
$30,000 is a key support level for bitcoin. But the crypto grandfather can’t seem to hold it.
As you can see below, bitcoin has been bouncing around the $30,000 level (black dotted line) over the past eight days. As I write Friday close to lunch, it’s down to $29,229.
The $30,000 level must hold and become a price floor. Otherwise, the crypto sector is likely to experience a significant decline.
For what’s behind this recent weakness, let’s turn to our crypto experts Luke Lango and Charlie Shrem from Crypto Investor Networkand their update last Saturday:
Last week, we drew a nice little chart for you that illustrated that bitcoin had broken its January 2022 uptrend and was on the verge of a short-term crash to $30,000.
A week and a Earth (LUNA) flush later, bitcoin did just that.
Following the unprecedented collapse of the $40 billion Terra project last week, fears reverberated through the crypto markets, sending bitcoin – and all cryptos – significantly lower.
During the sell-off, bitcoin crashed and even surged above $30,000.
*** The question is where does he go now?
Let’s rephrase – after all, if prices go up, so much the better. What we really want to know is, “If it keeps going down, how low could bitcoin go?”
There are a handful of support levels to watch.
First, Luke and Charlie are pointing to $26,500, although they don’t believe there’s huge strength there. So if it breaks, they’re looking at around $23,000.
For more on why this level might provide support, let’s turn to our newest crypto expert, Ashley Cassell.
For less familiar readers, Ashley directs The new digital world (NDW), which is a fantastic free resource dedicated to keeping you up to date with the latest in the world of crypto, NFT, and the metaverse.
Understanding the details behind industry volatility, technological breakthroughs and the latest digital offerings can give you a key advantage in the market. Click here to register – again, it’s completely free.
***Returning to our discussion of bitcoin support levels, how important is $23,000?
From Ashley’s Wednesday NDW update:
… We can estimate the base cost of all BTC currently in circulation. This “realized price” has “provided strong support during bear markets,” as Glassnode’s on-chain analysts have found. And as of Monday, the price realized by BTC investors is well below 2021 levels – at $23,940…
Even now, bitcoin is only around 20% of its realized price – which “has provided market bottom formation signals when the market price is trading below,” Glassnode notes.
Ashley provides the chart below using data from Glassnode. It highlights the last four bitcoin bear markets.
Notice the shaded column on the right. It shows us the time percentage of each bear market that passed with prices below the “realized price”.
As you will see, each bear market has had less relative time in this category.
Given bitcoin’s current proximity to its realized price (again, $23,940), combined with this trend of fewer and fewer days below the realized price, this support level could provide a bounce.
But what if it breaks too?
For that, let’s go back to Luke and Charlie:
Below that we have $18,000 – also strong, but not super strong.
Finally, we have a very high support level at $10,000, where in the worst case this current selloff would technically bottom out.
Does that mean you might want to add to your position at these prices?
Back to Luke and Charlie:
Patience is our best friend here.
Cryptos are a long-term investment. There is no need to rush and suffer in the short term.
Let this volatility settle. Let Bitcoin prove that it can hold the $30,000 level. Let altcoins regain their footing. Then if the stars start to align, we can start buying this dip in a big way.
Until then, we are placing strong emphasis on portfolio consolidation. This is a crypto bear market. Strong cryptos will survive bear markets. Weak cryptos will be flushed…
***Despite the general bearish conditions in crypto today, Luke and Charlie continue to find pockets of strength worth putting on your radar
With that in mind, I want to make sure you know something that just happened this morning with Luke and Charlie. Crypto Cash Calendar.
For the most recent Digest readers, here they are to explain what this calendar is:
Crypto is the future. But that doesn’t mean everything cryptocurrencies are the future.
To sift through all the blockchain noise, we have assembled an exclusive team of crypto engineers and coders to collectively research, analyze and understand the core technologies underlying the cryptocurrency revolution.
Informed by this research, we are able to interpret the usefulness and potential impacts of these technologies.
Here’s how it works: Behind the scenes, our proprietary research system collects information and indicates which altcoins and crypto events are of particular interest.
From there, we’ll share with you the most exciting and promising coins and events from our Crypto Cash calendar.
This morning Luke and Charlie announced an event that triggered their Crypto Cash Calendar system.
From their alert:
… In the rubble of this crash, we found some very attractive long-term investment opportunities. One in particular has huge upside potential.
There is only one secret… a key, if you will, to surviving – and thriving – in this crypto bear market. Simply put, you need to identify cryptos that are sporting bullish indicators and anchor your portfolio around them.
Today we are going to highlight the crypto that we think could be the highest quality option the low.
If you want to know more as a subscriber, click here.
Coming back to bitcoin, let’s give Luke and Charlie the final say on what to expect in the future:
Long term, we remain exceptionally bullish. We still believe that the BTC halving cycle will trigger a bull market in early 2023 that will last until 2025. The only thing that remains unclear is what cryptos do by then.
Have a good evening,