Canadian economy slows in third and fourth quarters, according to new CFIB forecasts
CFIB launches new quarterly report with short-term economic forecasts, an update to its job vacancy data series and a special look at the financial situation of small businesses
TORONTO, October 6, 2022 /CNW/ – According to a new report from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), total GDP grew by only 0.3% in the third quarter of 2022, dampened by the weak business climate, although some rebound be anticipated in the fourth quarter (+1.9%). Retail sales also decreased in the third quarter of 2022, with a growth rate of -0.6%; while some improvement should be seen in the fourth quarter, growth will remain below average and probably negative in real terms.
These are some of the main results of The Main Street Quarterly, CFIB’s new economic publication. CFIB and consulting firm AppEco have teamed up to develop the first near-term economic forecasts of some key macroeconomic indicators, leveraging news from CFIB’s Your Business Outlook Survey, the same survey used to create CFIB’s Monthly Business Barometer®. The Main Street Quarterly also contains CFIB’s latest estimates of vacancies in the private sector, as well as an “In Focus” section covering a specific topic each quarter; the current issue focuses on the borrowing costs and debt of small and medium-sized enterprises.
“CFIB is now providing key information on the state of the Canadian economy in real time from a small business perspective, in addition to short-term forecasting,” said Simon Gaudreaultchief economist and vice-president of research at CFIB. “This should serve as a useful tool for policy makers and financial institutions to make decisions that impact small businesses.”
Job vacancies remained high, but the vacancy rate began to decline in the third quarter
The private sector continued to record high job vacancy rates (4.9%) in the third quarter of 2022, with more than 660,000 jobs unfilled for at least four months.
“After hitting new highs in previous quarters, private sector vacancies fell slightly but remained bullish in the third quarter, with Quebec, Saskatchewan and British Columbia with the highest vacancy rates,” said Laure Anna Bomal, CFIB Research Analyst. “While this quarter’s vacancy rate decline is the first in many quarters, several other indicators still show historic labor market tightness, so it’s too early to conclude that we’ve turned the corner.”
Many businesses are still in dire financial straits, 4 in 10 haven’t started repaying their pandemic debt
To survive the pandemic, 65% of small businesses relied on loans from the federal government, while 24% used credit cards and 23% lines of credit. On average, 40% of small businesses have yet to repay any of their pandemic-related debt. Additionally, 55% of small businesses say their financial situation, including debt incurred due to the pandemic, poses a significant challenge.
“Recovery is still far from over for too many small businesses. We hope publications like The Main Street Quarterly can raise awareness of the current reality of Canadian entrepreneurs while CFIB continues to fight for measures that can improve the business climate,” added Gaudreault.
Read the first issue of The Main Street Quarterly here.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is from Canada largest association of small and medium-sized enterprises with 95,000 members in all sectors and all regions. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners’ chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. To learn more, visit ffic.ca.
AppEco is a consulting firm specializing in economic and strategic analysis. It has cutting-edge technical expertise and delivers top-notch services in applied economics: economic impact studies, surveys and polls, cost-benefit analyses, modelling, econometrics, pricing… Its mission is to provide useful services that contribute to economic growth. and the success of customer projects. AppEco works with businesses of all sizes, from small to multinationals, as well as governments and non-profit organizations. Learn more about appeco.ca/en.
SOURCE Canadian Federation of Independent Business
For further information: For media or interview requests, please contact: Dariya Baiguzhiyeva, CFIB, 647-464-2814, [email protected]
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